What's flu got to do with it? Changes in the age-structure of influenza mortality during pandemics

Abstract : Influenza is a disease that is associated with both old-age mortality and with occasional severe episodes known as pandemics. Interestingly, however, during pandemics, although mortality increases, the age-mortality pattern becomes less flu-like, shifting younger. This talk will outline the virological and demographic reasons for these mortality age shifts during influenza pandemics. I introduce the use of a cause-specific Gompertz paramerization to quantify the age shifts in mortality, using data from the two most recent pandemics (2009, H1N1 and 1968-69, H3N2) as well as the interpandemic periods (pre-1968, H2N2, and 1969-2009, H3N2, H3N2/H1N1). In short, influenza mortality affects the elderly, but the main policy concern about influenza is pandemic preparedness, when mortality skews younger; this talk will outline how and why.