ABSTRACT: This paper critically evaluates available data on divorce and the dissolution of cohabiting unions. We find that both vital statistics and retrospective survey data on divorce after 1990 are deeply flawed, and have greatly underestimated recent marital instability. These flawed data led many analysts to conclude that divorce risk has been stable or declining for the past three decades. Using new data from the American Community Survey and controlling for changes in the composition of the married population, we conclude that there was actually a substantial increase in divorce risk between 1990 and 2008. Divorce rates have declined over the past two decades among persons under 30, but have increased among those over age 35. The post-war baby boom generation has had consistently high divorce rates from the outset, and as this generation ages we expect that overall divorce rates will begin to decline in coming decades. Lower divorce among persons born since 1980 may reflect increasing selectivity of marriage. Even among the youngest cohorts, however, the decline in divorce risk is more than offset by the increasing number of dissolutions of cohabiting unions. Thus, divorce risk has risen sharply in recent years, but if current trends continue it will level off and begin to decline over the next few decades. Nevertheless, we expect that overall union instability will continue to increase because of the rise of cohabitation.
Event Date
-
Venue
Social Sciences 111
Semester
Event Type